Views and Analysis
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Nov 5, 2025
Navigating the Green Tightrope
Oct 9, 2025
A Transparent Alternative to Neural Networks
Sep 16, 2025
The Power of Narrative Attention
Nov 12, 2025
Confidence Revisited: The Distribution of Information
By Megan Czasonis, Mark Kritzman, Fangzhong Liu, and David Turkington Relevance-Based Prediction can assess a prediction’s reliability from the consistency of the information that forms it, providing a novel perspective that complements conventional measures of confidence. Prediction is like a voting process. Each datapoint casts a “vote” for the unknown outcome, and the final forecast averages these diverse views. But to know how confident we should be in the average, we need transparency into ...
Oct 14, 2025
The Fallacy of Concentration
By Mark Kritzman, and David Turkington Evidence shows that concentrated market capitalization weights do not make an index riskier, because larger stocks are inherently more diversified and their increased weights are offset by their lower volatility compared to small stocks. The dominance of large tech firms in market-cap-weighted indices has sparked recent concern about concentration risk, but historical data and empirical analysis suggest these fears may be unfounded. A review of nearly 90 ...
Sep 23, 2025
Permanent Capital Meets Private Markets
By Alexander Cheema-Fox, Megan Czasonis, Piyush Kontu and George Serafeim We analyse the transformative impact of life insurance platform integration on the business models, financial profiles, and market valuations of prominent alternative asset managers (AAMs). Relying on episodic fundraising through closed-end funds has long defined the growth and operating model of alternative asset managers (AAMs). Many firms have depended on periodic capital commitments from institutional investors, which, ...
Jan 13, 2026
Market Signals and Shifts: What to watch in 2026
Our second annual State Street Markets outlook, Market signals and shifts: What to watch in 2026, examines the dominant forces shaping the year ahead through a lens that challenges consensus thinking.
Jan 5, 2026
No need to shelter from higher US inflation ?
November’s two-for-the-price-of-one inflation print beat expectations even more than we estimated. This was partly due to a much sharper than expected easing in inflation from rents, which has been the persistent reason for the stickiness of inflation above the 2% target. Data on newly rented properties (most recently from Q2) has been warning of much softer shelter inflation for some time. So perhaps the distorted collection process has led to a greater weight of new rentals this time around. ...
Dec 8, 2025
An unprecedented Fed pass
For all the volatility in the macro environment, disagreement across the FOMC and public criticism of the central bank, the Fed in theory is still very predictable. So, with Fed fund futures discounting 23bps of easing at the December meeting it is highly unlikely that the Fed will not deliver. Looking back to 1994 at all the Fed meetings where rates were left on hold, there are no instances of market discounting such a sizeable move, in either direction. In short not delivering a cut this week ...
Jan 2026
Taking Stock of ’26: A Conversation with Ron O’Hanley
Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, is back on the podcast for a wide‑ranging discussion, looking back on the main stories of 2025 and ahead to the forces shaping 2026. Ron and host Tim Graf explore whether risks that once loomed large have faded or simply changed form, and how growth, monetary policy, and AI‑led investment may influence markets in 2026. Asset allocation trends, private markets expansion and global currency dynamics feature, before concluding with a view of State Street’s ...
Jan 2026
Tackling the 2026 Consensus
The start of the year is always a convenient time to think about consensus risk. Market watchers have all updated their forecasts and published their year ahead pieces. For the first episode of Street Signals in 2026, host Tim Graf, head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, carries on a tradition in going through a few of the most prominent consensus outlooks across rates, FX and equities, mapping them to the message from our proprietary indicators and highlighting opportunities to go with or against the ...
Dec 2025
The Best Reads of 2025
Just before Christmas, it’s tradition for the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 12th edition of that list, available now on our Insights ...
Dec 2025
Investors neutral amidst data uncertainty
Holdings Institutional portfolios remain heavily overweight in US equities and technology, favouring quality, growth and large caps, with stock allocations at an eighteen‑year high and bonds and cash still out of favour. Risk Appetite Risk appetite has eased to neutral as investors rotate out of cyclicals and commodities into defensives and the US dollar, while still taking selective risk in high yield credit and technology rather than retreating from equities.
Nov 2025
One Step Forward, One Step Back
Holdings Institutional portfolios remain heavily overweight in US, Tech, and growth oriented styles, with stock allocations at an 18-year high. Risk Appetite The risk appetite index has dropped to neutral as investors rotate out of cyclicals and commodities into defensives and the US dollar.
Oct 2025
Sentiment not falling into Fall
Holdings The State Street Holdings Indicators showed that long-term investor allocations to equities slightly increased, remaining at the highest level in sixteen and a half years. Risk Appetite The State Street Risk Appetite Index rose to 0.54 in October, resuming the risk seeking activity seen previously.
1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.