Views and Analysis
Type:
Author:
Sort:
Jun 4, 2026
Policy Regimes versus Economic Regimes
Apr 15, 2026
The Fallacy of Concentration
Apr 2, 2026
Permanent Capital Meets Private Markets
Apr 24, 2026
How do Global Portfolio Investors Hedge Currency Risk?
We study how institutional investors hedge foreign exchange risk using more than 25 years of monthly portfolio data from a global custodian, matching asset holdings with FX forward positions for U.S.- and non-U.S.-based investors. Fixed-income investors hedge more than equity investors, non-USD investors hedge more than USD investors, and hedging has risen markedly since 2008. Many investors appear to target and rebalance toward stable hedge ratios. Hedge ratios are related to carry, volatility, ...
Feb 19, 2026
Model Fingerprint
In this paper, we propose a novel model interpretability framework named Model Fingerprint. It is a bottom‑up approach to explaining machine learning models that shifts the focus from assigning feature importance to uncovering the logical structure that drives predictions. While attribution methods such as SHAP faithfully quantify how important each feature is, importance alone is a limited set of lens – much like trying to understand a movie by listing how significant each character is without ...
Dec 8, 2025
The cost of clearing repo analysis
The forthcoming SEC mandate for central clearing of U.S. Treasury repo transactions by 2027 is expected to materially alter market structure, particularly for buy‑side cash lenders such as money market funds (MMFs). Using a month‑end panel of MMF holdings from 2020–2025, we estimate the cost of clearing, defined as the spread between uncleared and cleared repo rates, and examine its drivers in a regression framework. We find that higher FICC Sponsored volumes are associated with lower clearing costs, ...
Jun 24, 2026
2026 Summer Sessions
2026 State Street Summer Sessions Webinar Series It is now our annual custom to take time in the summer months to share insights on the ever-evolving fundamentals of finance and investing. Please join us for our 6th annual State Street Summer Sessions, where we feature back-to-basics presentations from our renowned academic partners and the deep expertise of our research team in State Street Markets. Connecting theory to practice, our presenters will cover topics ranging from macro policy and investment ...
May 11, 2026
US inflation, bad but contained?
The record-breaking monthly jump in the State Street PriceStats index in March was largely mirrored in official readings (especially ex-shelter). But despite the size of that jump, there are few of easing in April. State Street PriceStats rose a further 0.9%mom nsa; a modest step down from March, but still the third-largest increase since the series began in July 2008. This pushed the annual inflation rate up beyond 4.5%, well-above the official inflation rate. The only good news is that the spike ...
Apr 28, 2026
Asset markets are not pricing stagflation risk, unless…
As we discuss in the latest Mr.Risk, Will equity and bonds run out of time?, Stagflation, simply defined by below trend growth and above-trend prices as captured by the ISM survey, is the usually the worst macro environment for equities over the past 30-years. And in theory, bonds should be a good diversifier in this environment. For now, markets seem to be betting that stagflation will not arrive in 2026, but if it does, the bottom line is that investors are certainly not positioned for it. Unless ...
Jun 2026
Alastair Campbell: Leadership, Media and the Populist Moment
Few people are better positioned to comment on current trends in media and politics than Alastair Campbell. After a long career in journalism and politics, serving as UK Prime Minister Tony Blair's Press Secretary and Downing Street Director of Communications and Strategy, Alastair now co-hosts 'The Rest Is Politics', the most popular politics podcast in the UK. This wide-ranging discussion covers the changing nature of the media, what it takes for a leader to drive policy, the state of populism ...
Jun 2026
Street Signals Turns 3!
As the podcast starts its fourth year, we take a look back this week: to its origins, how the content and message have changed over the years, what guests stood out as formative to building the audience and the lessons learned about macro and markets along the way. In a twist, the microphone gets turned around as well, with our host, Tim Graf, taking a turn as a guest. Ramu Thiagarajan, Head of Thought Leadership for State Street takes over this special birthday edition of Street Signals!
May 2026
A New Chapter for US and China?
This week we explore the evolving US-China relationship and the drivers of the stellar equity market performance in Asia this year joined by Dwyfor Evans, Head of Macro Strategy for Asia at State Street Markets. The recent summit meeting of US President Trump and Chinese Premier Xi Jinping marked a thawing of relations but considerable questions remain around how the two countries will navigate geopolitical and trade tensions. These important discussions frame a regional market backdrop remarkable ...
Feb 2026
A step on the brakes
Holdings Institutional portfolios stayed strongly tilted towards equities, with stock allocations at their highest since 2007 and bond allocations at their lowest since 2008, while the US remained a clear regional overweight. Risk Appetite Risk appetite eased back to neutral after a mid month lift, as Fed uncertainty and liquidity concerns encouraged a more cautious mix, with selective risk still expressed in emerging market bonds and FX and high yield versus investment grade.
Dec 2025
Investors neutral amidst data uncertainty
Holdings Institutional portfolios remain heavily overweight in US equities and technology, favouring quality, growth and large caps, with stock allocations at an eighteen‑year high and bonds and cash still out of favour. Risk Appetite Risk appetite has eased to neutral as investors rotate out of cyclicals and commodities into defensives and the US dollar, while still taking selective risk in high yield credit and technology rather than retreating from equities.
Nov 2025
One Step Forward, One Step Back
Holdings Institutional portfolios remain heavily overweight in US, Tech, and growth oriented styles, with stock allocations at an 18-year high. Risk Appetite The risk appetite index has dropped to neutral as investors rotate out of cyclicals and commodities into defensives and the US dollar.
1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.