Views and Analysis
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Jun 4, 2026
Policy Regimes versus Economic Regimes
Apr 15, 2026
The Fallacy of Concentration
Apr 2, 2026
Permanent Capital Meets Private Markets
Apr 24, 2026
How do Global Portfolio Investors Hedge Currency Risk?
We study how institutional investors hedge foreign exchange risk using more than 25 years of monthly portfolio data from a global custodian, matching asset holdings with FX forward positions for U.S.- and non-U.S.-based investors. Fixed-income investors hedge more than equity investors, non-USD investors hedge more than USD investors, and hedging has risen markedly since 2008. Many investors appear to target and rebalance toward stable hedge ratios. Hedge ratios are related to carry, volatility, ...
Feb 19, 2026
Model Fingerprint
In this paper, we propose a novel model interpretability framework named Model Fingerprint. It is a bottom‑up approach to explaining machine learning models that shifts the focus from assigning feature importance to uncovering the logical structure that drives predictions. While attribution methods such as SHAP faithfully quantify how important each feature is, importance alone is a limited set of lens – much like trying to understand a movie by listing how significant each character is without ...
Dec 8, 2025
The cost of clearing repo analysis
The forthcoming SEC mandate for central clearing of U.S. Treasury repo transactions by 2027 is expected to materially alter market structure, particularly for buy‑side cash lenders such as money market funds (MMFs). Using a month‑end panel of MMF holdings from 2020–2025, we estimate the cost of clearing, defined as the spread between uncleared and cleared repo rates, and examine its drivers in a regression framework. We find that higher FICC Sponsored volumes are associated with lower clearing costs, ...
Jul 8, 2026
2026 Foundations of Investing Seminar Series
It is now our annual custom to share insights on the ever-evolving fundamentals of finance and investing. Please join us for our 6th annual State Street Foundations of Investing Seminar Series, where we feature back-to-basics presentations from our renowned academic partners and the deep expertise of our research team in State Street Markets. Connecting theory to practice, our presenters will cover topics ranging from macro policy and investment strategy design to risk management and beyond. You ...
Jun 24, 2026
2026 Summer Sessions
2026 State Street Summer Sessions Webinar Series It is now our annual custom to take time in the summer months to share insights on the ever-evolving fundamentals of finance and investing. Please join us for our 6th annual State Street Summer Sessions, where we feature back-to-basics presentations from our renowned academic partners and the deep expertise of our research team in State Street Markets. Connecting theory to practice, our presenters will cover topics ranging from macro policy and investment ...
May 11, 2026
US inflation, bad but contained?
The record-breaking monthly jump in the State Street PriceStats index in March was largely mirrored in official readings (especially ex-shelter). But despite the size of that jump, there are few of easing in April. State Street PriceStats rose a further 0.9%mom nsa; a modest step down from March, but still the third-largest increase since the series began in July 2008. This pushed the annual inflation rate up beyond 4.5%, well-above the official inflation rate. The only good news is that the spike ...
Jul 2026
Marvin Barth: US Productivity, From Greenspan to Warsh
The passing of Alan Greenspan last month and confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chairman in May bookend two booms is US productivity: the mass networking of computing power during the Greenspan Fed of the 1990s and the explosion of inferential applications of computing power today. These cycles influence central bank policy in ways often underappreciated until their aftermath. Marvin Barth of Thematic Markets joins the podcast this week, to look back at the lessons learned from past ...
Jul 2026
Sir Ben Wallace: Deterrence and Lessons of Modern Warfare
The need for robust and enhanced defence spending in an increasingly fragmented world is a policy objective agreed upon across the political divide. Few are better positioned to comment on the obstacles and opportunities of the process than Sir Ben Wallace, a former Captain in the British Army, a member of Parliament for 20 years and Secretary of State for Defence of the United Kingdom between 2019 and 2023. In his post-government life as an investor, he offers a singular perspective on the gaps ...
Jul 2026
Mick Mulvaney: Policy, Polarization and the Trump Legacy
With so many unanswered questions about the direction of US domestic politics and the role the United States now plays in the world, few can bring the experience and depth of knowledge of the political process as this week's guest, Mick Mulvaney. Mick is a former elected member of the US House of Representatives for South Carolina, serving four terms before joining the first Trump administration in 2017 as Director of the Office of Management and Budget, ultimately serving as acting White House ...
Feb 2026
A step on the brakes
Holdings Institutional portfolios stayed strongly tilted towards equities, with stock allocations at their highest since 2007 and bond allocations at their lowest since 2008, while the US remained a clear regional overweight. Risk Appetite Risk appetite eased back to neutral after a mid month lift, as Fed uncertainty and liquidity concerns encouraged a more cautious mix, with selective risk still expressed in emerging market bonds and FX and high yield versus investment grade.
Dec 2025
Investors neutral amidst data uncertainty
Holdings Institutional portfolios remain heavily overweight in US equities and technology, favouring quality, growth and large caps, with stock allocations at an eighteen‑year high and bonds and cash still out of favour. Risk Appetite Risk appetite has eased to neutral as investors rotate out of cyclicals and commodities into defensives and the US dollar, while still taking selective risk in high yield credit and technology rather than retreating from equities.
Nov 2025
One Step Forward, One Step Back
Holdings Institutional portfolios remain heavily overweight in US, Tech, and growth oriented styles, with stock allocations at an 18-year high. Risk Appetite The risk appetite index has dropped to neutral as investors rotate out of cyclicals and commodities into defensives and the US dollar.
1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.