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Podcasts
Jan 2026
Taking Stock of ’26: A Conversation with Ron O’Hanley
Ron O’Hanley, Chairman and CEO of State Street, is back on the podcast for a wide‑ranging discussion, looking back on the main stories of 2025 and ahead to the forces shaping 2026. Ron and host Tim Graf explore whether risks that once loomed large have faded or simply changed form, and how growth, monetary policy, and AI‑led investment may influence markets in 2026. Asset allocation trends, private markets expansion and global currency dynamics feature, before concluding with a view of State Street’s ...
Jan 2026
Tackling the 2026 Consensus
The start of the year is always a convenient time to think about consensus risk. Market watchers have all updated their forecasts and published their year ahead pieces. For the first episode of Street Signals in 2026, host Tim Graf, head of Macro Strategy for EMEA, carries on a tradition in going through a few of the most prominent consensus outlooks across rates, FX and equities, mapping them to the message from our proprietary indicators and highlighting opportunities to go with or against the ...
Dec 2025
The Best Reads of 2025
Just before Christmas, it’s tradition for the Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets to publish recommendations of the best things we've read, listened to or watched over the previous year. Common patterns often emerge and it is often the case that our choices are informed by our work analyzing macroeconomics and markets. But as you're about to hear, many of the choices have nothing to do with our day jobs. This year, we published our 12th edition of that list, available now on our Insights ...
Dec 2025
Trading Notes for ‘26
After getting the year-ahead views of the Macro Strategy team at State Street Markets last week (which you can listen to here), this week we hear from our FX Trading team. Questions of central bank independence and policy divergence top the list of risk factors for 2026, with implications of the AI investment cycle also factoring heavily into a macro outlook. We catch up with Peter Vincent, EMEA Head of Trading, for his thoughts on the state of the US labor market, inflation, policies of the Federal ...
Dec 2025
The 12 Trades of Risk-mas: A 2026 Macro Outlook
The Macro Strategy Team at State Street Markets has published their top ideas for the year ahead. Will the tech stock bull run continue, or are recent, rising credit concerns enough to derail sentiment and valuations? Was 2025's dollar decline the beginning of a multi-year trend or is the buck on the brink of reversal? And are Japan's recent attempts at reflation about to stall or take the next step to success? We present a dozen ideas, across equities, fixed income and FX, all with an eye on which ...
Nov 2025
Imbalanced Accounts: Trade and Capital in 2025
The signal events and dominant narratives of 2025 have not had quite the advertized effects where global current account and capital flow trends are concerned. As Brad Setser, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, notes, tariffs raise revenue for the US but so far its external position relative to Asia has, if anything, worsened. De-dollarization has been an eye-catching idea that still has little basis in fact. The expected revaluation of currencies relative to the USD has been much ...
Nov 2025
Global Competition and Its Trade Offs with Elliot Hentov
This week, we dive into the nuanced world of macroeconomics and geopolitics. Elliot Hentov, Chief Macro Policy Strategist at State Street Investment Management, joins us to explore the state of deglobalization and the current status of geo-strategic competition in trade, technology, energy production and capital allocation. As we navigate the shocks of recent years and move towards a new equilibrium, the discussion focuses on the trade-offs embedded in each aspect of these competitions and the pressures ...
Nov 2025
Growth Beyond the AI Trade: Where Next?
Q3 earnings look like a prelude to a Santa rally, capping off another strong year for stocks. Sticking with a holiday theme, we can give thanks later this month for the outsized contribution of tech stocks to investor returns. But the AI narrative driving stocks in recent years is by now well understood and valuations look stretched. This week, we spend much of our time with Marija Veitmane, Head of Equity Strategy at State Street Markets, on where else to look for growth opportunities in global ...
Oct 2025
The US Dollar Downtrend: Dawn or Denouement?
A stand-out macro trend of 2025, the weakness of the US dollar remains a focal point for a market that is still heavily short. Is the consensus risk ripe for a surprise or are further headwinds in store for the world's most widely traded currency? And how might macroeconomic developments in Japan, Europe and the UK add to or detract from the appeal for dollars? This week, we discuss these factors and the broader FX landscape for developed markets, with Lee Ferridge, Head of Macro Strategy for the ...
Oct 2025
Convexity, Resilience and Building Better Brakes
Investors underestimate the probability of tail risk events and assume market correlations will be stable. These are well-understood yet persistent blind spots that damage long-term portfolio performance. This week, we talk to David Dredge, CIO of Convex Strategies, as he shares his experiences and perspectives on the importance of overcoming these biases and incorporating convexity exposure, towards building greater resilience, maximizing compounding effects in return streams and optimizing for ...
Oct 2025
Fundamentals over FOMO: Value Investing in the Age of AI
Growth stocks are driving returns and economic dynamism, but also sparking discussions of whether we sit in bubble territory. Our guest this week, Matt Smith, portfolio manager at QSM Asset Management, a long/short hedge fund with a value focus, provides a timely reminder of how a consistent, fundamental-oriented approach can still offer compelling risk-adjusted returns. We also walk through current equity markets and how modest pullbacks in the AI trade could pose economic problems
Oct 2025
Shutdown Economics
A shutdown of the US government raises myriad questions, particularly what economic impacts might be felt in the near-term and the bigger picture puzzle of how to assess the state of the economy when public data from government statistical agencies is delayed or unavailable. This week, we take a deep dive on those questions, with a focus on the September US CPI release as a test case for how to think about and use alternative data sets. We are joined by PriceStats co-founder Alberto Cavallo, global ...
Oct 2025
Constructing the Macro Mosaic
Drawing on decades of experience as a policymaker, investor and trader, Mark Dow joins us this week, as we thread the currents driving the global macroeconomy together into a cohesive whole. From tariffs, inflation, US labor supply issues and Fed independence, to gold, the dollar, debt and deficits, with a side trip to Argentina in between, few stones are left unturned in this macro masterclass.
Sep 2025
Do You Trust the Data?
Data drives decisions big and small, but a steady and worrying trend of deteriorating quality in public economic data adds an under-appreciated complexity to the choices made by central bankers and finance ministry officials. Simona Mocuta, chief economist at State Street Investment Management, joins us to discuss how and why this problem has become so acute in recent years, how private data sources can both help and hinder policymakers, and what improvements are necessary.
Sep 2025
How Stretched Are Stocks?
Our title is the most-often asked question of recent weeks, with equity markets making new all-time highs and inflows continuing, despite an overwhelmingly consensus belief that they are also overvalued. However, this seeming paradox can persist, as Dan Gerard, senior multi-asset strategist for State Street Markets, highlights. We delve into the earnings power of the companies driving equity market returns, whether this will ever be a stockpickers market and what role the Federal Reserve is poised ...
Sep 2025
Gilt Trip: Budgets, UK Politics and the Path of Populism
The British pound and gilts already face heavy scrutiny from markets, ahead of what could be a politically defining budget process for the UK Labour Party later this Autumn. As our guest this week details, a politically possible outcome that also keeps bond markets happy looks very difficult to achieve, potentially setting up for a period of volatility for UK assets and sterling. Helen Thomas, CEO of BlondeMoney, is back on the podcast to walk through the constraints on the government imposed both ...
Sep 2025
No More Fear Left for Fall?
Summer is giving way to autumn and risk markets see few signs of a fall. It's not for lack of potential threats. Questions of Fed independence swirl and the US economy offers in equal parts the potential to either slow sharply or re-accelerate and threaten hopes for easier policy. The path of inflation is still an open question. Emerging threats to fiscal and political stability in Europe and the UK are once again on the market's mind. But none of these risks seem to demand higher risk premia, at ...
Aug 2025
Jackson Hole and Beyond: Labor Pains for the Fed
The investing world awaits the message from the Federal Reserve's Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend. As an event, historically it can often disappoint those looking for answers. Expectations for clear guidance on near-term Fed policy seem low this year. Chairman Jay Powell regularly reminds markets (and politicians) that the two elements of the central bank's mandate are now in conflict. Trade tariffs are likely to boost inflation for a while longer and have delayed a more aggressive easing cycle. ...
Aug 2025
The Buck Stops Where? FX Risk-Proofing for the Long Term
Currency markets can be a lot like equity markets in that over or under-valuations can stay stretched for longer than one might think possible, before mean reversion inevitably kicks in. Maintaining an effective FX process for the long-term requires special attention to these questions of fair value, while also keeping an eye on the day-to-day headlines and short-term price dislocations that offer opportunities for alpha. Aaron Hurd, a senior portfolio manager at State Street Investment Management, ...
Aug 2025
Where Next On Inflation's Puzzling Path?
Just when inflation was within striking distance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy target of 2%, allowing them to begin cutting rates last year, tariffs as a forceful policy choice of the US administration. Higher import duties have disrupted plans to ease rates and extend the soft landing of the US economy further. Tariffs also now appear to have introduced high uncertainty in the US labor market and the staffing plans of corporations, creating a potential demand-side dampening of any inflation ...
Jul 2025
The Summer 2025 Market Watchlist
Street Signals has had its mini-hiatus and is now back for most of the rest of the summer. This week, host Tim Graf walks through the big questions hanging over markets, some of which will need to be considered in the coming weeks, before the flip flops are put back in the closet and trading desks are back to fully staffed. We ponder what's next for equity markets, whether we'll actually start to soon see strong tariff-fueled inflation and whether the US dollar is at another inflection point after ...
Jul 2025
Marvin Barth: The Framework of a Second American Century
The period following the Second World War is often referred to as the American Century, when the rise of the United States to global hegemon accelerated and solidified. Those who take a keen interest in the global political economy are starting to wonder if that era is coming to a close. But the volatility of US policy in recent years, as much as it gives rise to questions over whether this period of American exceptionalism is at an end, also carries with it many elements which could herald its ...
Jul 2025
The Big Beautiful Podcast on Tax Cuts and Tariffs
The calm after the storm of April's volatility has been maintained, despite a massive fiscal expansion passing through Congress and being signed by the President, and the end of the deferral period for most of the tariffs initially announced at the start of Q2. As we await the economic impacts of the One Big Beautiful Bill and the onset of significantly higher tariffs on most of the US' trading partners, Noel Dixon, a senior macro strategist on the team at State Street Markets, returns to the podcast ...
Jun 2025
The Temperature Rises, Markets Keep Their Cool
In this 100th episode of Street Signals, a theme ever-present throughout its two-year history comes to the fore once again: the ability of financial markets to come to grips with and move past seemingly implacable uncertainty. Q2 2025 alone provided what felt like a decade's worth of seismic and (theoretically) negative shocks to sentiment, yet equity markets have recovered quickly and are poised to push to new all-time highs, while many traditional safe haven currencies are on the back foot. This ...
Jun 2025
Yuan Direction: Asian FX, Oil and the US Rate Outlook
Markets are still grappling with global trade and fiscal policies in flux and we were reminded this week that geopolitical risk is never out of the frame for too long. The broadening of hostilities in Israel and Iran necessarily extends the vigilance of policymakers for first and second order impacts on their economies, carrying with it potential implications for currency and interest rate markets, in particular. This week, we look at how all-important reserve managers and governments in Asia are ...
Jun 2025
Asset Allocation In the Age of Fragmentation
Coming to you from our London Research Retreat, this week's episode of Street Signals explores the ongoing fragmentation in the global political economy and its implications for asset managers and asset owners. In a panel discussion with host Tim Graf, guests Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors, and Ramu Thiagarajan, head of Thought Leadership at State Street, discuss how traditional correlation structures are breaking down, drawing parallels to the macro ...
Jun 2025
US Equities: Complacently Crowded or Suddenly Safe?
Quantified measures of US trade and economic policy uncertainty are no longer at all-time highs, yet the global growth outlook for the rest of 2025 can still only be judged through a glass darkly. Indigestion of expanded supply in global fixed income markets similarly clouds the appeal of risky assets. Which makes the resilience of equity markets, and particularly the reversal in US stocks back towards all-time highs, all the more impressive. Marija Veitmane, our global head of equity strategy, joins ...
May 2025
Craig Fuller: Tariffs and Twists in Global Supply Chains
The near-constant fluctuation of tariff rates and their implementation dates has rendered economic forecasting an exercise in futility, at both the macro and micro level. But when supply chain disruptions loom, it’s best to hear from Craig Fuller, CEO and founder of FreightWaves, a provider of near real-time data and analysis on all phases of delivery in the global goods economy. From container shipping and port data to domestic trucking rates, the insights provided by Craig and his team are invaluable ...
May 2025
Gold Rush 2.0: Putting the Pedal to the Metal
Robin Tsui, APAC Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, joins the podcast to break down what’s driving the surge in demand for gold over the past three years. From inflation fears to geopolitical risk, gold has reclaimed its shine as both a safe haven and strategic asset. Robin explains how central bank buying, ETF flows, and shifting investor sentiment are shaping the gold market – and what it could mean for the rest of 2025. Whether you’re a bullion believer or a curious sceptic, this ...
May 2025
Dollar Discussions In The Desert
This week, we take Street Signals on the road. As we travel through four countries in the Middle East, Dale Haver, Global Head of FX Sales at State Street Markets, joins us for a quick but expansive chat on FX markets past and present. We talk through the most impactful evolutions in the client experience over a long career in currencies, as well as what's on the horizon. Current markets are never far from our minds though - especially given a certain US President seems to be following us around ...
1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.