July NFP data fog

By: Macro Strategy Team

July 25, 2025

By: Macro Strategy Team

Macro Strategy Team

There are two months of the year in which the deviation between Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) seasonally adjusted and the non-seasonally adjusted numbers are quite large. Those are January and July. The chart shows the recent years where the seasonal adjustment has averaged 1,040,000 jobs. If the seasonally adjusted NFP beats or misses, some will want to blame the seasonal adjustment. It is not an easy job and is one of those dark arts from statisticians.

Author Bios

Macro Strategy Team

The Macro Strategy team provides cross-asset research and market intelligence across developed and emerging economies. Their expertise in FX, equities, and fixed income is complemented by proprietary indicators on investor behavior, inflation, and sentiment—turning complex data into actionable insights that help clients anticipate risks and capture opportunities.

1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.