Chart of the Week25 Jul 2025
July NFP data fog
There are two months of the year in which the deviation between Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) seasonally adjusted and the non-seasonally adjusted numbers are quite large. Those are January and July. The chart shows the recent years where the seasonal adjustment has averaged 1,040,000 jobs. If the seasonally adjusted NFP beats or misses, some will want to blame the seasonal adjustment. It is not an easy job and is one of those dark arts from statisticians.