Why Fed tone still matters

By: Macro Strategy Team

March 13, 2025

By: Macro Strategy Team

Macro Strategy Team

With so many other narratives driving markets one might assume that the impact of Fed commentary could get drowned out. It is not.

The change in forward looking US rate expectations over the past twelve-weeks still correlates well with changes in our hawkish/dovish indicator.

The level of that indicator is still consistent with Fed easing and it has become more dovish in the past few weeks highlighting the importance of the commentary that will follow of the March FOMC for the sustainability of recent market moves in rates and the USD.

Author Bios

Macro Strategy Team

The Macro Strategy team provides cross-asset research and market intelligence across developed and emerging economies. Their expertise in FX, equities, and fixed income is complemented by proprietary indicators on investor behavior, inflation, and sentiment—turning complex data into actionable insights that help clients anticipate risks and capture opportunities.

1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.