US inflation: A first look

By: Macro Strategy Team

May 9, 2025

By: Macro Strategy Team

Macro Strategy Team

So far so good.

As we note here PriceStats shows that US prices did rise in April as tariffs began to be implemented. But the rise was within recent ranges and lower than the same month last year, so the annual inflation rate is unlikely to accelerate.

While there are signs of much stronger inflation in import sensitive sectors, as Albert Cavallo will discuss at our upcoming research events (register here), the overall message is that aggregate inflation remains contained for now.

Author Bios

Macro Strategy Team

The Macro Strategy team provides cross-asset research and market intelligence across developed and emerging economies. Their expertise in FX, equities, and fixed income is complemented by proprietary indicators on investor behavior, inflation, and sentiment—turning complex data into actionable insights that help clients anticipate risks and capture opportunities.

1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.