When to worry about inflation?

Even prior to the jump in oil prices seen in recent days, our US PriceStats series was sending some slightly worrying messages. Rebasing the series to 100 at the start of the year we see that thus far in 2026, online price rises are running meaningfully above both the 10-yr median and the interquartile 10-yr range. Recent days have also seen the 2026 trend accelerate away from that seen in 2025. It is still early in the year and the annual change in US PriceStats series is a still relatively benign 2.8%. However, the current monthly increase (0.42%) is the strongest since April 2024 and that is before we capture the impact of the recent oil price jump.