Starting to be felt

While February’s US retail sales report proved stronger than expected, it might be the last consensus beater for some time. This week saw average US gas prices rise above $4 for the first time since August 2022. Prior to the Covid reopening spike, we need to go back to 2008 to find the last time gas prices nationally breached $4. Prices have risen by $1.08 since the day before the Iran conflict started. It is estimated that a $1 rise raises household gasoline costs by $700-900 per year or, around 1% of total household consumption. Extra money on gas means less money available to spend elsewhere. Expects some parts of the retail sector to start feeling the impact quickly.