For all the volatility in the macro environment, disagreement across the FOMC and public criticism of the central bank, the Fed in theory is still very predictable.

So, with Fed fund futures discounting 23bps of easing at the December meeting it is highly unlikely that the Fed will not deliver.

Looking back to 1994 at all the Fed meetings where rates were left on hold, there are no instances of market discounting such a sizeable move, in either direction.

In short not delivering a cut this week would mark one of the biggest surprises in recent Fed history.