How troubling is the return of US inflation?

By: Macro Strategy Team

September 4, 2026

By: Macro Strategy Team

Macro Strategy Team

The State Street PriceStats index rose 0.44%mom (nsa) in August on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, its largest monthly increase since May after two months of flat or falling prices. This is potentially problematic coming at such a delicate time ahead of the September FOMC. But as troubling as the headline jump looks, the detail behind it suggests almost half of the leap is energy related. It is also a move that consensus estimates appear well prepared for, and may, in the words of Gov. Waller, be a reasonable enough number to keep rates on hold another meeting.

Author Bios

Macro Strategy Team

The Macro Strategy team provides cross-asset research and market intelligence across developed and emerging economies. Their expertise in FX, equities, and fixed income is complemented by proprietary indicators on investor behavior, inflation, and sentiment—turning complex data into actionable insights that help clients anticipate risks and capture opportunities.

1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.