March 11, 2022
Street Signals
Complimentary CONTENT
Street Signals 123: Gauging International Conflict
March 11, 2022
- Michael MetcalfeSenior Managing Director
- Timothy GrafManaging Director
- Travis WhitmoreQuantitative Researcher
Fundamentals will never lose their influence on markets, but thematics and narrative now drive them to an astonishing degree. Our MKT MediaStats initiative helps quantify this effect of narrative, and, in recent weeks, we are bearing witness to just how much weight the prospect and reality of international conflict carry in determining financial outcomes. Travis Whitmore and Michael Metcalfe co-authored a fascinating paper on how this coverage of conflict, as captured by our MediaStats indicators, correlates to currency performance. This week, Street Speak takes a look at the paper, with a wide-ranging discussion on what we should typically expect, as well as what we currently see as drivers of markets as Russia’s war on Ukraine unfolds.
Author Bios
Michael Metcalfe
Michael is Senior Managing Director and Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Markets
Timothy Graf
Tim Graf is Managing Director and European Head of Macro Strategy at State Street Markets
Travis Whitmore
Travis Whitmore is a senior quantitative researcher at State Street Associates, the partnership between State Street Markets and renowned academics at Harvard Business School, MIT Sloan School of Management, Boston College and EDHEC Business School. Based out of Frankfurt, he works with institutional clients in continental Europe across State Street Associate’s entire research offering and helps drive global research initiatives. Before moving to his role in Frankfurt, Travis worked closely with Harvard Professor Ken Froot to develop new investment applications with our proprietary flows and holdings information. Additionally, he worked with the academic partners at MediaStats, a firm specializing in Natural Language Processing, to help investors leverage digital media indicators in their decision-making.
1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.