Street Signals 123: Gauging International Conflict

Fundamentals will never lose their influence on markets, but thematics and narrative now drive them to an astonishing degree. Our MKT MediaStats initiative helps quantify this effect of narrative, and, in recent weeks, we are bearing witness to just how much weight the prospect and reality of international conflict carry in determining financial outcomes. Travis Whitmore and Michael Metcalfe co-authored a fascinating paper on how this coverage of conflict, as captured by our MediaStats indicators, correlates to currency performance. This week, Street Speak takes a look at the paper, with a wide-ranging discussion on what we should typically expect, as well as what we currently see as drivers of markets as Russia’s war on Ukraine unfolds.