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Correlation Surprise

January 1, 2014
By: William Kinlaw, David Turkington, State Street Associates

By William Kinlaw and David Turkington

Published in the Journal of Asset Management, January 2014

We extend Kritzman and Li’s study by disentangling the volatility and correlation components of turbulence to derive a measure of correlation surprise. On average, after controlling for volatility, we find that periods characterized by correlation surprise lead to higher risk and lower returns to risk premia than periods characterized by typical correlations.

Author Bios
William Kinlaw
William (Will) Kinlaw is executive vice president and head of Data Intelligence at State Street. Will leads a firm-wide initiative that empowers clients to distill actionable insights from proprietary and third-party datasets. Drawing on State Street’s technology and data infrastructure, as well as State Street Associates — our hub for partnerships with academics and fintech data companies — the team develops products that enhance clients’ investment, trading, operations and distribution capabilities.
David Turkington
David Turkington is Senior Managing Director and Head of State Street Associates, State Street Markets’ decades-long partnership with renowned academics that produces innovative research on markets and investment strategy. David is a frequent presenter at industry conferences, has published more than 40 research articles in a range of journals, and serves on the editorial board of the Journal of Alternative Investments. He is the co-author of three books including “Asset Allocation: From Theory to Practice and Beyond” and “Prediction Revisited: The Importance of Observation.” His published research has received the 2010 Graham and Dodd Scroll Award, five Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Outstanding Article Awards, the 2013 Peter L. Bernstein Award for best paper in an Institutional Investor journal, the 2021 and 2023 Roger F. Murray First Prize for outstanding research presented at the Q Group seminars, and the 2022 and 2023 Harry Markowitz awards for best paper in the Journal of Investment Management.
State Street Associates
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1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.