With the economy slowing and the odds of a recession rising, sharp debate has begun on just how bad the UER needs get in order to more properly balance the jobs market. The swords are sharpened with Larry Summer contending (here and here) a steep decline in employment is unavoidable, while Chris Waller argues a soft landing is possible. At the heart of their arguments is the steepness of the Beveridge curve, which will determine how much economic tightening is required to bring down record high vacancies. There does appear to be various regimes but determining which one we are facing is impossible given the record jobs mismatch and transitioning workforce, although deciding on your Beveridge will be key for your risk view.