Chart of the Week08 Mar 2024
SPX Absolute Value % Change on CPI day

The absolute value of SPX daily changes on CPI day are shown. In 2022 there were a set of massive moves, both up and down on CPI day. It has calmed down a bit since then although last month’s upside surprise did lead to a -1.37% decline for the SPX. That was all the dip that the bears got as since then the SPX is now 5% higher. What will happen on March 12th? How will stocks react to another strong CPI? Will they ignore it having seen how the market rejected the initial downside move last month? Or is a higher-than-expected CPI a trigger for a more substantial correction? Or will a downside surprise jolt markets higher only to be faded by profit taking?

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