Chart of the Week30 May 2025
Agree to disagree
May’s FOMC minutes emphasized the “unusually elevated uncertainty” surrounding policymakers’ economic outlooks. Such uncertainty is also reflected in voter disagreement as measured by the dispersion in individual Fed members’ media tone, which has been consistently on the rise since the start of the year. Indeed, while volatility in market Fed pricing has ebbed since the more immediate aftermath of April’s tariff announcements, voter disagreement continues to edge higher as the Fed grapples with the economic implications of evolving trade, fiscal, regulatory, and immigration policies, reminding us that despite investors’ comfort with current pricing, policymakers remain split.