Looking through the data fog

In a year when policy uncertainty has been a watchword, interest rate markets were always a little too confident in a third consecutive easing in December, especially given the current data fog clouding the outlook.

For now, alternative data for October is pointing in a similar direction. As we detail in Not so scary heading into Halloween, the uptrend in PriceStats annual inflation rate has levelled out over the month. The downtrend in labour demand captured by Indeed job postings has continued. And the balance of risks to unemployment continue to lie on the upside according to the Chicago Fed indicators.

The question now is whether official data will be released in time to confirm these trends.