Chart of the Week19 Apr 2024
US exceptionalism (but not the good kind)

The latest IMF Fiscal Monitor makes worrying reading for the US. It predicts that US annual fiscal deficits will continue to run at or above 6% of GDP through to 2029. The cumulative deficit from 2019 to 2029 will thus amount to 82.5% of GDP (N.B. this is not the predicted change in the Debt to GDP ratio as GDP changes are not factored in). For advanced economies excluding the US, the expectation is for cumulative deficits over the same period of 30.1% of GDP (36% of the US total) and for EM (excluding China) of 43% (just over half of the US). Did someone say Debt Sustainability?

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