The traditional correlation between oil prices and 10yr UST yields broke down in late October, shortly before the US Presidential election. Oil prices have remained subdued post-election – despite geopolitical tensions – given the interplay between potential oversupply and fears of weaker global demand. The message from long rates is to focus less on oil and near-term Federal Reserve policy and more on fiscal policy and trade protectionism from the incoming US administration. The formation of  government spending plans and the roadmap for tariffs thus look centre-stage for the bond market in early 2025.