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Quantifying Narratives and their Impact on Financial Markets

April 4, 2023
By: Rajeev Bhargava, Gideon Ozik, Ronnie Sadka, Travis Whitmore, State Street Associates
Summary

By Rajeev Bhargava, Xiaoxia Lou, Gideon Ozik, Ronnie Sadka and Travis Whitmore 

 

We introduce a unique media-based measure of narratives, called thematic indicators, and explore how they can be used to improve asset allocation and achieve desired thematic exposures.

 

This paper introduces a media-coverage-based approach to quantify narratives and develops methodologies to explain the extent to which narratives drive financial markets and returns of investment portfolios. We show that media-derived narratives may contain predictive information for market returns beyond traditional macro indicators. Finally, we demonstrate that narrative indicators can be used to enhance asset allocation strategies and to gain or hedge exposure to narratives by constructing portfolios of narrative-sensitive assets.

 

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Author Bios
Rajeev Bhargava
Gideon Ozik
Gideon is a managing partner and founder of MKT MediaStats, where he leads business, research, and development. He has applied quantitative research in roles spanning investment solutions, hedge funds, and derivatives trading, and he is an affiliate professor at EDHEC. His research focuses on advancing unstructured data analysis using AI and machine learning to extract actionable signals from media. Gideon’s contribution to research and product development provides State Street clients with a unique lens on the implications of media for markets.
Ronnie Sadka
Ronnie is a professor and chairperson of the finance department at the Carroll School of Management at Boston College. He is also a managing partner and founder of MKT MediaStats, which produces innovative measures of financial economic narratives from online media. In addition to his research on narratives, he has published extensively on liquidity in financial markets. Ronnie’s contributions advance the development and application of alternative data sets for State Street clients.
Travis Whitmore
Travis Whitmore is a senior quantitative researcher at State Street Associates, the partnership between State Street Markets and renowned academics at Harvard Business School, MIT Sloan School of Management, Boston College and EDHEC Business School. Based out of Frankfurt, he works with institutional clients in continental Europe across State Street Associate’s entire research offering and helps drive global research initiatives.  Before moving to his role in Frankfurt, Travis worked closely with Harvard Professor Ken Froot to develop new investment applications with our proprietary flows and holdings information. Additionally, he worked with the academic partners at MediaStats, a firm specializing in Natural Language Processing, to help investors leverage digital media indicators in their decision-making.
State Street Associates
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1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.