The State Street “Recession is Likely” indicator's current reading is a punchy 93.2%. This stands in sharp contrast to the Bloomberg survey of economists 1-year forward probability of recession, which is currently at just 30%.

The chart shows the State Street indicator reading at the time of the first rate cut. The average for soft landings, which includes 1984, 1995 and 1998, is 18%. The latter two episodes were framed by the Greenspan Fed as “insurance” rate cuts.

The average reading for hard landing that anticipated recession is 78%. The current reading is even higher.