A question of tone

By: Macro Strategy Team

January 17, 2025

By: Macro Strategy Team

Macro Strategy Team

Interest rate markets had just gotten used to the idea that the outlook for the Fed was in the balance, but the tone of media coverage suggests that might have been a step too far.

Media sentiment is certainly much less dovish today than it was in September, but it is still dovish, especially for certain members of the committee, from Waller to Powell.

The Fed’s communication black-out begins this week ahead of the January meeting, but, going into that meeting, tone remains much more constructive than market pricing on the prospects for more easing.

Author Bios

Macro Strategy Team

The Macro Strategy team provides cross-asset research and market intelligence across developed and emerging economies. Their expertise in FX, equities, and fixed income is complemented by proprietary indicators on investor behavior, inflation, and sentiment—turning complex data into actionable insights that help clients anticipate risks and capture opportunities.

1. Peter L. Bernstein Award for Best Article in an Institutional Investor Journal in 2013; Bernstein-Fabozzi/Jacobs-Levy Award for Outstanding Article in the Journal of Portfolio Management in 2006, 2009, 2011, 2013 (2), 2014, 2015, 2016, 2021; Graham & Dodd Scroll Award for article in the Financial Analysts Journal in 2002 and 2010. Roger F. Murray First Prize for Research Presented at the Q Group Conference in 2012, 2021, 2023. Harry M. Markowitz Award for Best Paper in the Journal of Investment Management in 2022, 2023. Doriot Award for Best Private Equity Research Paper in 2022.