2025 was supposed to be the year that tariffs pushed up US inflation and possibly sent Europe into recession.

Tariff policy is, of course, still being formed, but for now the opposite seems to be true.

US growth is slowing relative to expectations, and relative to normal seasonals, PriceStats suggests Eurozone inflation has risen much more robustly in the first half of March than in the US.

If these trends continue it may be that the Fed will be the more active central bank during the remainder of 2025.