This time Sahm-thing is actually different

The triggering of the Sahm rule in July caused a significant (if short-lived) market reaction but is still seen one of the reasons why markets are expecting an aggressive Fed easing cycle to come. However, Claudia Sahm herself has argued that her rule may be less relevant this time around, as the rise in the unemployment rate has been caused by increased labour supply rather than lay-offs. History would agree. Since 1980 the Sahm rule has been triggered six times and never has it occurred when payrolls growth is so robust. 3m payrolls is currently averaging 167k, by far the strongest job gains we have seen when Sahm is in play.