The Hawks and Doves Disperse

Nine of the G10 central banks convene within the next two weeks. Four are priced to keep rates on hold (BOE, RBA, Norges Bank, Riksbank), four are seen cutting (BOC, ECB, SNB and the Fed) and the Bank of Japan are likely to hike.

The dispersion of rate paths is confirmed by widening deviations from a G10 average of our Hawkish-Dovish indicator of central bank coverage tones over the last six months. The relative hawkishness of the BOJ stands out, as does the extreme dovishness of the Bank of Canada, the only central bank seen delivering a larger, 50bps cut. After months of relative hawkishness, RBA coverage is heading back to normal. The Fed? Slightly more dovish than its peers, but not overly so.