The VIX never spiked to 35 nor did the VIX futures 1st-4th hit 5. Nevertheless, the seasonal timing for a bounce is present. The backdrop is one in which recession is a low probability given the New York Fed probability of just 27% in the next 12-months, down from a peak of 70.85% last May. Equally, the SOFR curve bottoms out at 3.50%, 50bps above the Fed’s neutral estimate. This is soft-landing pricing. That brings us to the chart of 10% corrections since the mid-1960s. If soft landing is right, it ought to rally.