Summer Sessions - Introduction to exchange rates, overshoots in theory and in practice

Exchange rates are fundamentally crucial for inflation, growth and international portfolios, as well as the cost of your summer vacation. Yet even though they are one of the deepest and most liquid financial markets, they remain one of the hardest to value and (sometimes) to understand. While theory suggests that exchange rates should calibrate around interest rate differentials or equalizing the prices of internationally tradeable goods or a broader set of equilibriums that produce internal and external balances in an economy. In practice exchange rates are able to deviate substantially from such theoretical constructs as they jump between different macro drivers. With reference to the US dollar overshoot that is currently underway in 2022, we offer a guide as to how currency investment processes aim to cope with such an unruly asset class.

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